TikTok's Indian clones will need lots of luck and money to recreate the magic of the original
TikTok was a phenomenon unlike any other here, making stars
out of everyday Indians from villages and small towns who had never been
discovered and never would have if not for the 15-second medium. For the first
time, Indians from all walks of life could connect and entertain one another,
even earning a tidy sum while doing so. The ban on TikTok abruptly ended all of
that.
It hasn't taken long for homemade contenders to rush into
that large, vacant space left by TikTok, all with the hopes of taking the
Chinese app's throne. Bolo Indya, Mitron, Chingari, Roposo, and a few others
have turned on their turbines to take advantage of this unique opportunity to
cater to this almost insatiable need for authentic entertainment.
Of these, Mitron has received a hefty share of attention:
First for being banned from the Google Play Store for violating its spam and
minimum functionality policy and then for what it says is the enormous daily
traffic it experiences, which it claimed has shot up by eleven times since the
ban. Mitron also said that it has gained upwards of 17 million registered
downloads in just two months of being on the Play Store.
Sharechat, which describes itself as India's largest regional
social media app with over 150 million registered users and 60 million monthly
active users across 15 Indian languages, declared that it's short video app Moj
had logged over 15 million downloads in just a few days since the ban. Another
app, Chingari, says it has gained over 25 million downloads and close to 3
million daily active users.
By contrast, TikTok in India was downloaded around 660
million times
Some apps have also begun to experiment with new models to
expand reach. Chingari, for instance, is offering to pay music composers on its
platform based on how popular their songs get. The traffic surges have sent
these companies into a tizzy of hiring developers, designers, brand managers,
and product managers.
But here's the rub. Transforming into a TikTok is going to
involve a combination of things that almost no-one has on tap. Firstly, an app
wants to reach a certain scale, and that scale can only be achieved with a
gigantic amount of capital. Guess which place has seemingly unending amounts of
capital? If you guessed China, you're right.
China has already invested hundreds of billions of dollars
into Indian companies, but even if you ignore the crushing irony of trying to
raise money from China for an Indian TikTok clone, a new law recently passed by
the Modi government requires special government approval if cash originates
from a company situated in a country that shares a land border with India -- in
other words, China.
Anand Lunia, founding partner at India Quotient, which has
invested in ShareChat and Roposo said in an Economic Times report that
"most apps seeing downloads today will lose 90% of the people within a
month."
What capital gets you is the millions of dollars needed for
marketing and customer and creator acquisition. If you happen to get all of
that right, you still have to ensure that your platform can provide an
enjoyable user experience so people keep coming back. Just to provide an
off-the-cuff example of an Indian app that has been successful, food app Zomato
has received $840 million as of January 2020 over roughly seven years.
Of course, none of this would even be remotely possible
without solid engineering chops that can build a top-notch recommendation and
personalization engine. This requires at least $50-$100 million, according to
prominent VCs in India who have spent significant time in Silicon Valley as
entrepreneurs and investors.
There's a strange, ironic, little tale about engineering and
product development chops that is part of this story. It turns out that a
security researcher unearthed the true origin of TikTok aspirant Mitron's code.
It came from archenemy Pakistan, via a platform across the border dubbed TicTic
that was sold to the CEO of the Indian short-video app for a paltry $34.
Now everyone buys code from places like CodeCanyon and Github
for a quick fix, but when someone is using it on a long-term basis, it is a
bright, red flag, indicating an inability to build a solid feature.
"Our IT industry historically has never been an
end-to-end product development industry, it's been an IT services
industry," said Jayanth Kolla, founder of Convergence Catalyst, a global
research and advisory firm in Mint. "The end-to-end product thinking
itself has been missing in India for the longest time, especially software
product development, until recently," he added.
A helpful warning by Kolla that will serve all TikTok clones
well: Each line of code is examined painstakingly for origins and errors when a
startup is fundraising and off-the-shelf code could be an instant deal-breaker.
Meanwhile, millions of former TikTok stars are fleeing to
YouTube and Instagram -- which has come out with its clone called Reels. At the
same time, these stars also secretly hoping and waiting for TikTok's return,
which may well happen if things cool down considerably between India and China
since there's too much money at stake.
If this ever happens, most of these new players will be
toast. Even if that doesn't happen, don't be surprised if many of the players
on this list become footnotes in history because of the onerous amounts of
money and hard-to-find talent required to make one of these apps.
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